Silver, big picture update.
Let me introduce updated big picture scenarios in silver, with brief comments.
Monthly char: different counts are pointing to the target region between 12.013 and 15.808 XAG. This region is where larger degree correction from 49 level in 2011 is expected to complete.
My primary count is presented on the Chart 2, and smaller scenarios of smaller wave degrees - on the Charts 2-1 (my preference) and 2-2 (tough count - nevertheless, I allow that we are very close to completion of correction from 2011, and this is possible wave interpretation for this option).
Technically speaking, my primary count on the Chart 2-1 has silver on correction to the upside (which could take form of expanded flat and reach 17.2 region before the bounce). So, Charts 1 and 2 are presenting different scenarios for the bounce within this presumable correction; but worth note that Charts 2-1, 1, 3 are suggesting strong decline to the lower lows after this bounce will complete (presumably - to the target region on the monthly chart).
Chart 2-2 is the only scenario, suggesting that The Bottom is coming on the next low - and I do not consider this scenario much likely at the moment. Nevertheless, any approach to positioning now MUST account this option in the trade plans, imHo.
So, I consider lower 17sh region to be a likely target for the coming decline, imHo. I have to say that smaller degree scenarios on the 4 and 1 hr charts MAY refer to additional scenarios for the current correction - but overall perspective do not change; all I expect is just a reevaluation of probability of scenarios presented here.
As for positioning - I would not recommend holding massive short position in silver. Personally, I am going to start entering longs at the lower 17
All charts may be downloaded as a pdf file in good quality under this link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzqpO9PlXoSMMUR0c3dCLW5Wb0U/edit?usp=sharing
Let me introduce updated big picture scenarios in silver, with brief comments.
Monthly char: different counts are pointing to the target region between 12.013 and 15.808 XAG. This region is where larger degree correction from 49 level in 2011 is expected to complete.
My primary count is presented on the Chart 2, and smaller scenarios of smaller wave degrees - on the Charts 2-1 (my preference) and 2-2 (tough count - nevertheless, I allow that we are very close to completion of correction from 2011, and this is possible wave interpretation for this option).
Technically speaking, my primary count on the Chart 2-1 has silver on correction to the upside (which could take form of expanded flat and reach 17.2 region before the bounce). So, Charts 1 and 2 are presenting different scenarios for the bounce within this presumable correction; but worth note that Charts 2-1, 1, 3 are suggesting strong decline to the lower lows after this bounce will complete (presumably - to the target region on the monthly chart).
Chart 2-2 is the only scenario, suggesting that The Bottom is coming on the next low - and I do not consider this scenario much likely at the moment. Nevertheless, any approach to positioning now MUST account this option in the trade plans, imHo.
So, I consider lower 17sh region to be a likely target for the coming decline, imHo. I have to say that smaller degree scenarios on the 4 and 1 hr charts MAY refer to additional scenarios for the current correction - but overall perspective do not change; all I expect is just a reevaluation of probability of scenarios presented here.
As for positioning - I would not recommend holding massive short position in silver. Personally, I am going to start entering longs at the lower 17
All charts may be downloaded as a pdf file in good quality under this link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzqpO9PlXoSMMUR0c3dCLW5Wb0U/edit?usp=sharing
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