Gold, big picture update.
Monthly chart: I maintain wave (IV) of Supercycle degree for the primary count, with ideal target at 1086 XAU, or (least likely alternative) at 892 (.618 retr. of (III)). Retracement levels of the wave (III) also work on the smaller degree time scales.
Several scenarios presented on the daily charts may be introduced as following base cases:
- gold is going to hold over the Dec 2013 low and initiate another leg up within the corrective wave [B] of x (Chart 1-2). Bounce in the wave [C] of x may reach relatively high levels (1420/1530), but at the moment I can't specify the target more accurately.
If this scenario would play out - then we also have to keep in mind that gold did not break down below the June 2013 lows - and technically there is still a possibility of the bottom in place.
I have to say that RSI reading may be interpreted as supportive for this option - meeting low over the Dec 3013 low - but detection of further count will be available after completion of decline.
- gold is going to develop impulsive pattern to the downside that could reach 1041 (Chart 2) or higher levels - 1132/1189 (Chart 1-1).
My preferable interpretation for impulsive decline would be completion of the larger degree correction in the wave (IV) of a Supercycle degree, with immediate start of the wave (V) uptrend to 2500 or higher. Distinction between scenarios on the Chart 2 and 1-1 may be figured out on the bounce off the low: the lower gold would fall the higher probability of The bottom, imHo.
Scenario on the Chart 3 is also based on impulsive decline to 1132 (at a minimum) - but the bounce may reach MUCH higher levels then mentioned above: wave b of (IV) targets may reside as high as 1750. This scenario may look overly artificial - but take a look at the pattern from 2008, wave (B) of [B]: there I see 3 waves down within an expanded flat wave [B] and immediate rocket start to the upside, which resolved in free fall to the new lows. I think that this scenario should be kept in mind.
All charts may be downloaded as a pdf file in good quality under this link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzqpO9PlXoSMcVlGQ0dzdno0Mjg/edit?usp=sharing
Monthly chart: I maintain wave (IV) of Supercycle degree for the primary count, with ideal target at 1086 XAU, or (least likely alternative) at 892 (.618 retr. of (III)). Retracement levels of the wave (III) also work on the smaller degree time scales.
Several scenarios presented on the daily charts may be introduced as following base cases:
- gold is going to hold over the Dec 2013 low and initiate another leg up within the corrective wave [B] of x (Chart 1-2). Bounce in the wave [C] of x may reach relatively high levels (1420/1530), but at the moment I can't specify the target more accurately.
If this scenario would play out - then we also have to keep in mind that gold did not break down below the June 2013 lows - and technically there is still a possibility of the bottom in place.
I have to say that RSI reading may be interpreted as supportive for this option - meeting low over the Dec 3013 low - but detection of further count will be available after completion of decline.
- gold is going to develop impulsive pattern to the downside that could reach 1041 (Chart 2) or higher levels - 1132/1189 (Chart 1-1).
My preferable interpretation for impulsive decline would be completion of the larger degree correction in the wave (IV) of a Supercycle degree, with immediate start of the wave (V) uptrend to 2500 or higher. Distinction between scenarios on the Chart 2 and 1-1 may be figured out on the bounce off the low: the lower gold would fall the higher probability of The bottom, imHo.
Scenario on the Chart 3 is also based on impulsive decline to 1132 (at a minimum) - but the bounce may reach MUCH higher levels then mentioned above: wave b of (IV) targets may reside as high as 1750. This scenario may look overly artificial - but take a look at the pattern from 2008, wave (B) of [B]: there I see 3 waves down within an expanded flat wave [B] and immediate rocket start to the upside, which resolved in free fall to the new lows. I think that this scenario should be kept in mind.
All charts may be downloaded as a pdf file in good quality under this link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzqpO9PlXoSMcVlGQ0dzdno0Mjg/edit?usp=sharing
No comments:
Post a Comment