Can you feel it? That air of desperation creeping into the mindset of the gold and silver bulls. It seems like only yesterday that the bulls were hooting and hollering and calling the next great bull market underway. Calls of "$2000 gold here we come", "$100 silver here we come". Yeehaaaa!!!
Them were the days. And I suspect those days are nearly upon us again. And these same calls will be ripped out once more. However, before that party gets started, a low is needed to end their respective pullbacks. Let's see where things stand beginning with gold.
The RSI shows a little bullish divergence so a low looks close at hand.
The MACD indicator is still bearish and trending down but it is at extremely low levels so a sharp rally would not surprise here. But first we need a low. Where?
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the leg up from the May low to recent July high. I must admit, I didn't think price would go as low as the 76.4% level. But that is exactly where it hit today.
That may be it. I'm looking to get involved on the long side here but I just couldn't do it today. Something just doesn't feel right. I took some small long positions but when the reversal didn't eventuate today I closed them out.
Price may see a wash out down close to the 88.6% level at US$18.95 before the belated reversal higher begins. I'm watching keenly!
And as I did with the gold chart, I have also outlined the uptrend and downtrend channels. While not as apparent as the gold chart, price does look more impulsive in the uptrend channel and more corrective in the downtrend channel.
Let's reacquaint ourselves of the big picture by looking at the monthly chart.
As with gold, the RSI on the silver monthly chart shows a pattern of higher highs and higher lows indicating strength is building.
The Stochastic indicator is also indicating bullishness by trending up.
And the MACD, while being at low levels, is also trending up and indicating higher prices are likely with the blue line above the red line.
And with all this evidence of bullishness, price is still only around US$19.50! That probably means something drastic is set to happen.
I have added a PSAR indicator which shows the dots to the upside being busted last month. Now it's time for the silver price to go on with the job.
I remain extremely confident that a large rally is set to occur any day now that will see both gold and silver bust their respective July highs. The coming low may see a spike down before a sharp reversal higher and may prove hard to catch. I suspect one will have to be nimble.
And by the way, I do believe we will see US$2000 gold and US$50 silver and much higher in the future. Just not yet.
What i have posted please u have to read this until u do not read this u cant trade this volatile market,
Below i will be posting another view please read it also
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Gold and Oil on the Verge of Something Big - Hero's Rarely Win
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Everyone has been calling for a bottoming Gold the last year. But the fact is that gold and gold stocks are still clearly in a bear market. Just look at the 200 day moving averages. The previous trends were down and prices have been moving sideways for the past year.
A lot of newsletter and analysts are calling a bottom. Technically it's just a consolidation pattern. Consolidation patterns are a continuation pattern, meaning if the previous trend was down, which it was from 2011 till now, the odds favor price will continue lower after this consolidation.
Gold and oil have not been that exciting for investors since 2011 when they topped out, but both are setting up for massive moves that should last month, if not year or more. Once these new trends emerge expect to see them in the headline news every hour.
It does not matter which way these commodities breakout of the consolidation patterns. With the dollar continuing to rise and the bearish chart patterns for both gold and oil there is a good chance much lower prices are ahead.
This will catch most investor's off guard. It's human nature to try to predict tops and bottoms in the market. But this is why most investors get caught on the wrong side of the market. The market always has a way of catching the majority of people on the wrong side of a position.
I am happily sitting in cash with some of my investment capital waiting for gold and oil to breakout of these large patterns. I would not be surprised if we see $900 gold, gold stocks like the gold bugs index $HUI to be at $150, and $70 per barrel for crude oil. I am not saying this is what I want, but you should be mentally prepared so you can get back into cash position and so you can take advantage of falling prices with me.
Big money will be made on the next price movements in these commodities. Whether we have to go long the market or short sell the market. Either way, we can make money. So don't be a hero and try to pick a top or bottom, just wait for confirmed breakout then invest with the trend.
If this consolidation does happen to be the bottom then we can classify it as a stage I base. Gold and gold stocks will start a new bull market, but price needs to break to the upside of this consolidation pattern. Until it breaks to the upside, it is still in a down trend.
Gold topped out over three years ago. And I am in no rush to try to pick a bottom and be a hero here. I'm just going to continue waiting on the sidelines until price confirms either a new bull market has started or for price to breakdown and we get another leg lower.
Them were the days. And I suspect those days are nearly upon us again. And these same calls will be ripped out once more. However, before that party gets started, a low is needed to end their respective pullbacks. Let's see where things stand beginning with gold.
The RSI shows a little bullish divergence so a low looks close at hand.
The MACD indicator is still bearish and trending down but it is at extremely low levels so a sharp rally would not surprise here. But first we need a low. Where?
I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the leg up from the May low to recent July high. I must admit, I didn't think price would go as low as the 76.4% level. But that is exactly where it hit today.
That may be it. I'm looking to get involved on the long side here but I just couldn't do it today. Something just doesn't feel right. I took some small long positions but when the reversal didn't eventuate today I closed them out.
Price may see a wash out down close to the 88.6% level at US$18.95 before the belated reversal higher begins. I'm watching keenly!
And as I did with the gold chart, I have also outlined the uptrend and downtrend channels. While not as apparent as the gold chart, price does look more impulsive in the uptrend channel and more corrective in the downtrend channel.
Let's reacquaint ourselves of the big picture by looking at the monthly chart.
As with gold, the RSI on the silver monthly chart shows a pattern of higher highs and higher lows indicating strength is building.
The Stochastic indicator is also indicating bullishness by trending up.
And the MACD, while being at low levels, is also trending up and indicating higher prices are likely with the blue line above the red line.
And with all this evidence of bullishness, price is still only around US$19.50! That probably means something drastic is set to happen.
I have added a PSAR indicator which shows the dots to the upside being busted last month. Now it's time for the silver price to go on with the job.
I remain extremely confident that a large rally is set to occur any day now that will see both gold and silver bust their respective July highs. The coming low may see a spike down before a sharp reversal higher and may prove hard to catch. I suspect one will have to be nimble.
And by the way, I do believe we will see US$2000 gold and US$50 silver and much higher in the future. Just not yet.
What i have posted please u have to read this until u do not read this u cant trade this volatile market,
Below i will be posting another view please read it also
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold and Oil on the Verge of Something Big - Hero's Rarely Win
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Everyone has been calling for a bottoming Gold the last year. But the fact is that gold and gold stocks are still clearly in a bear market. Just look at the 200 day moving averages. The previous trends were down and prices have been moving sideways for the past year.
A lot of newsletter and analysts are calling a bottom. Technically it's just a consolidation pattern. Consolidation patterns are a continuation pattern, meaning if the previous trend was down, which it was from 2011 till now, the odds favor price will continue lower after this consolidation.
Gold and oil have not been that exciting for investors since 2011 when they topped out, but both are setting up for massive moves that should last month, if not year or more. Once these new trends emerge expect to see them in the headline news every hour.
It does not matter which way these commodities breakout of the consolidation patterns. With the dollar continuing to rise and the bearish chart patterns for both gold and oil there is a good chance much lower prices are ahead.
This will catch most investor's off guard. It's human nature to try to predict tops and bottoms in the market. But this is why most investors get caught on the wrong side of the market. The market always has a way of catching the majority of people on the wrong side of a position.
I am happily sitting in cash with some of my investment capital waiting for gold and oil to breakout of these large patterns. I would not be surprised if we see $900 gold, gold stocks like the gold bugs index $HUI to be at $150, and $70 per barrel for crude oil. I am not saying this is what I want, but you should be mentally prepared so you can get back into cash position and so you can take advantage of falling prices with me.
Big money will be made on the next price movements in these commodities. Whether we have to go long the market or short sell the market. Either way, we can make money. So don't be a hero and try to pick a top or bottom, just wait for confirmed breakout then invest with the trend.
If this consolidation does happen to be the bottom then we can classify it as a stage I base. Gold and gold stocks will start a new bull market, but price needs to break to the upside of this consolidation pattern. Until it breaks to the upside, it is still in a down trend.
Gold topped out over three years ago. And I am in no rush to try to pick a bottom and be a hero here. I'm just going to continue waiting on the sidelines until price confirms either a new bull market has started or for price to breakdown and we get another leg lower.
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