Gold

GOLD -  My expectation is that further downside is coming near term, but first, let me start with big picture.

My big picture (GLD chart) base case is that gold is in a corrective consolidation over the past year, off June 2013 low. I allow for the possibility that gold has somehow bottomed, but for me to view that as reasonably likely, for starters, GLD needs to take out DTL in the 130 area, with stronger confirmation upon a move over 143-147. For as long as we are under the DTL in the 130 area, I'm operating under the assumption that GLD is in a triangle, as pictured. That means, I'm not looking for any impulses (at the degree of the daily chart)! Merely playing support/resistance. In this base case, if this is a b-wave bounce, it has likely topped, and we are about to experience the slide similar to one marked with yellow rectangle. Note that this base case is denoted as Alt on the hourly chart (as I prefer to play hourly from the standpoint of impulsive support-resistance breaking).

Moving on to the hourly chart, which is on GC rather than GLD, there are four scenarios I'm watching here, all of which point to further downside likely in the near term (the kind of "or we go down a little, or we go down a lot" confluence I like).

The 1330 resistance I've been noting seems to be doing its job here, and at a minimum, I expect further downside consolidation in wave circle-iv, ideally targeting 1303-1305, but with support down to 1295. After that, another push to 1350 should follow, which happens to correspond to GLD 130 resistance discussed above.

The scenario labeled as Alt is that corrective bounce has topped, in which case gold is likely heading to 1090 area triangle support. To confirm that scenario, we need to see acceleration to the downside, with  taking out 1240 being the strongest confirmation.

Alt(b) is another potential, this one being a bullish potential. In it, we can see a pullback as shallow as 1305, but it can be as deep as 1286, and then proceed to the upside to take out 2.0 fib at 1350 (and GLD resistance discussed above). This is a very bullish scenario.

Lastly, Alt(c) is a scenario where further upside is seen, but only correctively, likely to top in the 1350 area. In this scenario, a deeper pullback targeting 1258-1286 is to be seen, then to be followed by a push to that 1350 area representing GLD DTL resistance.

Finally, a note on trading multiple scenarios. When I have a chart as complicated as this one, I look for either a confluence of scenarios (such as currently, when all scenarios I consider likely are pointing down, near term), OR for a low-risk entry for one of the scenarios I view as reasonably high probability. That's all that these charts are. Not tarot cards telling the future. Much of the time is spent monitoring for these opportunities rather than being in a trade.