💰💲MASTER THE DOLLAR💲💰

Silver

SILVER #SPOT 

•All eyes on $ 40-------42 soon !!

•Next Target $ 50+

♦Remember : Now $ 32 is nearest base support for any type of panic 

♦ $ 28 is ROCK BOTTOM SUPPORT..............!!

Gold: Quick Geocosmic Update

Geocosmic Reading:

Gold: A 2-star CRD(Crucial Reversal Date) is now in effect Saturn is stationary too, which means any market declining is a candidate for a cycle low in the next week. Gold is in a time band for a primary cycle and prices are declining, so the idea is to look for signs that low is forming here (buy signal). especially Moon in Taurus this Thurs—Fri because it is a solar-lunar reversal combo too, with high score for a low.

Gold – Trump’s possible victory: profit-taking in the market ??

 Since breaking out above 2,530 US dollars at the end of August, the price of gold has only known one way up. After a stormy rise, a new all-time high of 2,790 US dollars was reached yesterday, Wednesday. A major consolidation or even a real correction has so far been absent.

The increased volatility has only resulted in two sharp, but overall very manageable, setbacks. Instead, gold bulls are storming from one new all-time high to the next.

Overall, the rally on the gold market has been going on since autumn 2022. The triple low at 1,615 US dollars marked the trend reversal at that time. However, the upward movement has only gained significant momentum in the last twelve and a half months. Starting at 1,810 US dollars, the gold price completed its summer correction on October 5, 2023.

Since then, there has been an impressive increase of over +54%.

In particular, the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East since the Hamas invasion has been one of the main drivers. Of course, the ongoing drama in Ukraine as well as strong physical demand from Asia and the BRICS' ongoing move away from the US dollar also played a decisive role.

Accordingly, it can certainly be argued that the significantly increased price of gold includes a certain “war premium”.
Gold in US dollars on the night of the US election in 2016, weekly chart from October 31, 2024.

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, there are strong indications that he would pursue a de-escalation strategy for both the Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East. Regarding Ukraine, Trump's advisers are outlining a model of a "frozen conflict" with autonomous regions and a demilitarized zone, with Ukraine remaining outside NATO.

Trump himself criticizes the current situation and emphasizes that any deal, even a bad one, would be better than the current situation. A similar approach can be assumed for the Middle East, with Trump likely relying on his supposed skills as a deal-maker to defuse the conflicts through negotiations and economic pressure rather than relying on military solutions.

Whether Donald Trump will actually bring about a de-escalation remains to be seen.

We are currently particularly interested in whether the markets might start to price in a de-escalation in the future. This could actually lead to profit-taking in the overheated gold market.

Even Mr Trump will not be able to solve the problem of dramatic US debt, but his election victory could well trigger a setback in precious metal prices lasting several weeks, similar to what happened in 2016.

At that time, his surprise victory on election night initially caused a sharp spike to almost 1,340 US dollars. But the very next morning, the price of gold collapsed and collapsed in the following six weeks to 1,122 US dollars (-16.6%).

Accordingly, we would be somewhat cautious in the short term. According to a Bloomberg survey, over two-thirds of the experts surveyed recommend gold as a hedge against the uncertainties of a Trump presidency. As convinced counter-cyclicals, we are alert to such expectations and suspect the opposite, because the potential surprise lies in a falling gold price. In the medium and long term, however, Trump's announced economic policy, particularly with regard to tariffs, tax cuts and trade wars, could weaken the US dollar and fuel inflation again. This should then make the gold price even more attractive.


Gold in US $ – target of 2,800 $ almost reached..

Gold in US dollars, daily chart from October 31, 2024. 

On its daily chart, the gold price has been showing an almost straight upward trend for months. And even in the few consolidations lasting several weeks, the bears had little to laugh about. A break in the established upward trend would only be possible if the gold price fell below 2,560 US dollars. However, in the wake of increased volatility and possible profit-taking, one or two support zones could well be tested in the coming weeks. There is a very strong support zone in the area of ​​2,600 US dollars in particular.
However, the daily stochastics are still running like clockwork in a bullish embedded state and are securing the upward momentum for now. A bigger slap from the bears is definitely needed to break up this extremely bullish structure.

For now, the technical probabilities suggest that the rally will continue.

However, many leveraged speculators are sitting on extraordinarily high profits, which could be realized at any time on the paper gold market with the click of a mouse. Regardless of the fundamental conditions, a well-known waterfall-like sell-off could be triggered, particularly due to the heavily overbought situation.
With a little patience and a solid liquidity position, there might be another good buying opportunity on the money market by mid-December, because the overall upward trend is intact and gold has not yet reached all of its price targets.

Trump’s possible victory: profit-taking in the gold market??

The price of gold has been on an impressive upward trend for months, driven by geopolitical tensions, strong physical demand from Asia and the BRICS countries' increasing move away from the US dollar. It was only in the spring that Western investors began to return to the precious metals sector, although both the price of silver and mining stocks still have a lot of catching up to do.

The factors mentioned have led to a certain "war premium" in the price of gold and pushed it to new all-time highs.

Despite the overbought market situation and the possibility of short-term corrections, especially in view of the upcoming US presidential elections, the overall uptrend remains intact.
However, a possible election victory for Donald Trump could initially lead to profit-taking and a short-term correction in the gold market, similar to what happened in 2016. In the long term, however, Trump's economic policy approaches, such as tariffs and tax cuts, could weaken the US dollar and fuel inflation, which in turn would support the gold price. Investors should therefore remain vigilant and consider possible corrections as buying opportunities, as the gold market has not yet reached all of its price targets and the fundamental drivers for a higher gold price still exist.

Our price target of "approx. 2,745 to 2,800 US dollars" was more or less met at 2,790 US dollars. We see the price of gold continuing to rise to at least 3,080 to 3,100 US dollars by next spring 2025. A possible setback to the range of around 2,600 to 2,625 US dollars could therefore provide another worthwhile entry in the coming weeks.

Gold Geocosmic Reading Gold 3000 Ahead?

3000 is a possibility in this Gold breakout, especially as long as resistance-turned support at 2694-2709 holds and this is a new primary cycle after that 90.00 break from 2708-2618 Sep 27-Oct 10. Solar-lunar air-air did not produce sharp sell off this week, which is another sign bull run is still on.

Pullback early this week in Gold and Silver after last week’s breakout to new highs? This week begins with the last air-air solar lunar combination of the Libra season. 

There is usually at least one of these 3-4 combos correlating with a sharp but brief sell-off (Which we have seen Yesterday) when the Sun is  in an air sign, and the previous lunar air signs did not produce that sharp of a sell off so far. 

Yesterday's selloff held the breakout of former resistance (now turned support) at 2694-2709 in Gold? If this is a new primary cycle and breakout, new highs are still ahead and any decline into this support zone represent buying opportunities with reasonable stop losses based on risk tolerance. 

Opportunity is that higher prices still likely within next 1-3 weeks. Danger is that once high is in, 50-week cycle low time band also still in effect thru December and especially by late Nov.

You can make a trading plan with these timing factors in mind.

And yes, it’s possible 50-week cycle skips a beat this time. That happens with 15-20% frequency. Our strategies, however, are based on historical frequencies of 80% or more. 

Would be nice if any studies were 100% as novice traders and analysts would like to believe of their work. But markets have a way of teaching humility and the need for emotional detachment thru experience on the path to becoming a successful trader or analyst. In other words, if you miss one by following your plan, don’t take it personally. If you start missing more than you hit, your plan isn’t working and you need to re-evaluate that plan.

Turbo rally in silver: rise to record level

Shortly before the end of the week, the silver bulls are attempting to reach the resistance zone of 32.50 US dollars for the third time in four weeks. They had previously failed quite clearly at this level in May. In retrospect, however, the subsequent setback to 26.40 US dollars only cleared up the overbought situation and ultimately gave the silver bulls new strength.

Accordingly, the attacks are now becoming faster and more intense. A breakout above the resistance level of around 32.50 US dollars is within reach and should result in a rapid price increase to around 35 US dollars. In addition, there are further price targets between around 37.50 and 40.00 US dollars and of course around the all-time high of around 50 US dollars. We believe a breakthrough to the all-time highs in the coming months is possible and realistic.

Silver with great catch-up potential

Although the price of silver continues to lag clearly behind the price of gold in the bigger picture, it has nevertheless been able to keep up with the spectacular development on the gold market, at least since the beginning of the year .

Overall, both precious metals have seen a price increase of around 35%. However, as always, silver shows greater volatility.

At the same time, the gold/silver ratio is above the 10-year average at 84:1. A real trend reversal in favor of silver would probably only occur once the upward trend line that has existed since 2011 in the area of ​​around 74 has been clearly broken downwards.

As always,  Silver will probably only turn on the turbo on the home stretch and then schizophrenically but also elegantly at the overtake the gold price in a schizophrenic but also elegant manner .

This typical behavior at the end of a rally in the precious metals sector has not yet been observed. Therefore, there is a good chance that the party could continue at least until the end of the year, and probably even into next spring. In the short term, the US election could perhaps bring about some profit-taking and thus a breather .

However, industrial silver demand from Asia (solar & batteries) remains a key driver of prices, particularly due to the increase in solar demand, which now accounts for around 15% of total demand.

Buyers in Shanghai are also still willing to pay a premium of around 6 percent for physical silver.

With mine supply stagnating or even declining in some areas, the slowly increasing investment demand in the West could further increase the deficit in the silver market. Currently, the holdings of exchange-traded silver funds are around 30% below their 2020 peak. But nothing attracts new investors more than rising prices!

After a daily high of 32.61 US dollars, the price of silver is now aiming for the highest weekly closing price since December 2012, once again attacking the resistance zone of 32.50 US dollars. The breakout or liberation is within reach.

Chart-wise, the uptrend is intact and the breakout from the ascending triangle of the last few weeks is underway. Fortunately, the daily stochastics supports this bullish starting position .

The oscillator also still has plenty of room to reach its overbought zone. On the downside, the rapidly rising 50-day line (30.15 US dollars) should absorb any setback and subsequently catapult prices further north.

Overall, the starting position is extremely bullish and a rise to 35 US dollars is probably imminent. In addition, the breakout should be able to push silver prices up to a level of at least 50 US dollars in the coming weeks and months.

Conclusion: 

Silver - The Turbo Booster is coming

The silver market is likely on the verge of a crucial turning point that could trigger a significant upward price increase . The expansionary monetary policy of central banks and rising geopolitical tensions have led to an increasing scarcity of raw materials, especially silver, which is indispensable in numerous technologies.

The latest Futures Market Report (CoT) shows that the amount of silver futures contracts sold on the Comex exceeds more than a year of supply, indicating an impending run on physical silver. This dynamic could drive the silver price further higher and initiate a massive bull market in the silver market, similar to developments in 2010, 2016 and 2020.